"Dirty Little Secrets" - The Ten Worst Wars

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"The Ten Worst Wars"

With several dozen wars going on around the world at the moment, it's difficult to pin down the ten most in need of our attention. So we provide two top ten lists. One lists the wars that are most likely to be of concern to Americans. The second list ranks the wars in order of the local mayhem they create. Let us not forget that, for those caught in the middle of a war, that war is the worst war imaginable.

Wars That Matter Most (or should) to Americans

1 -	Taiwan Straits. All of America's Asian allies are concerned about China's growing military power and diplomatic aggressiveness. There is also an economic angle, for Taiwan produces critical percentages of key electronic components. So any actual, or attempted, Chinese takeover is dangerous because of the potential economic danger to U.S. high-tech industries. There is also the reputation issue. Taiwan and America have been allies for more than 50 years. To abandon an ally like that would not help U.S. relations elsewhere. So if the Chinese push, America is likely to find itself in the line of fire. And don't forget, China and Taiwan ("The Republic of China") are still technically at war.
2 -	Iraqi Containment. America, which gets so much of its oil from the Persian Gulf, does not want an unstable dictator loose in the area. Not all of the locals agree; many of Iraq's neighbors feel that they can deal with Saddam Hussein. But even if we did back off on Iraq, we would be right back if Saddam, or a successor, got rambunctious again.
3 -	North Korea. This is the last, heavily armed, Stalinist police state left on the planet. North Korea not only threatens our ally South Korea, but also our major trading partner; Japan. The U.S. can't easily walk away from this one. Also, the Korean War is still officially on, as it was a ceasefire that ended the fighting.
4 -	Chechen War. Russia is still a superpower in terms of nuclear weapons, and is still a polyglot nation. The Chechens are the most troublesome of Russia's many minorities, and if the Russians cannot deal with Chechnya, there may be other rebellions. Not the sort of thing you want in a nation with so many nukes.
5 -	Indo-Pakistani conflict. Pakistan is the only Moslem nation with nukes, along with a goodly supply of homegrown religious fundamentalists. India has a large Moslem population, and possession of the disputed (with Pakistan), largely Moslem, province of Kashmir. We don't want a nuclear war in South Asia, and we don't want Pakistan sharing its nuclear secrets with hostile Moslem states or sects.
6 -	Kosovo War. We put our peacekeeping reputation on the line here. Looks like a bad bet, but "American honor is at stake." Hmmm, where have we heard that one before?
7 -	Colombian internal war. The major source of hard drugs coming into the United States, Colombia also has had rebellions and civil unrest for the last 50 years. The drug lords are moving into other Latin American nations. We are getting sucked into this one.
8 -	Indonesian internal chaos. Some three decades of dictatorship kept the lid on a lot of separatism and religious violence. Aside from the risk of unrest spreading to neighboring nations, key shipping channels pass through Indonesian waters. Threaten these and the economic damage would be widespread.
9 -	Israeli-Palestinian and Israeli-Syrian peace negotiations. A more stable peace in the Middle East makes Western oil more secure and lessens the chance of an unfriendly nuclear power developing. The Middle East is also the source of many terrorist recruits. Peace would also reduce global terrorism.
10 -	Bosnia deployment. Another Kosovo. Same reasons, same risks. Not quite as volatile as Kosovo, but still a pretty hopeless situation.

Most Violent Wars

1 -	Ethiopia versus Eritrea. Seems to be over for the moment, but was killing thousands a week when fighting was going on. And it may start again.
2 -	Congo Wars (Zaire's wars of devolution). A lot of troops, and a lot of civilians in the way who will get killed by the thousands.
3 -	Sri Lanka. Between the suicide bombers and the battlefield action, a steady supply of corpses.
4 -	Chechnya. A small percentage of the Chechens will fight to death, and take some Russians with them. Currently the war du jour for Moslem fundamentalists, so it may spread to neighboring areas.
5 -	Sudan. You don't see much of this on TV because it's pretty dangerous even for journalists. Raids, battles, sieges, slaving, a regular medieval misery of mayhem.
6 -	Sierra Leone. Hard to tell the bandits from the rebels, or the good guys for that matter. Even the UN peacekeepers are terrorized, and the killing just goes on.
7 -	Afghanistan. Not a lot of killing considering the thousands of heavily armed fighters in the field. But these people do it as a way of life, so a high death rate would wipe out the population in short order.
8 -	India and Pakistan conflict (Kashmir). Pakistan increases support for Kashmir rebels, and the death toll increases.
9 -	Burundi. Another genocide waiting to happen. Meanwhile, the participants practice on each other.
10 -	Uganda's internal wars. Obscure, but intractable.

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"Dirty Little Secrets"
by James F. Dunnigan
Jim Dunnigan

James F Dunnigan works as an advisor and lecturer to the Army War College, State Department, National Defense University, Naval Post Graduate School, CIA, and MORS.
He is the author of over one hundred historical simulations and fifteen books, including the modern military classic "How to Make War," which has been current and in print for 16 years selling over half a million copies.
He serves as a military analyst for NBC and MSNBC, and he also appears frequently as a military affairs commentator for ABC, CBS and CNN as he did throughout the Persian Gulf War.
Mr. Dunnigan served in the U.S. Army from 1961 to 1964, and is a graduate of Columbia University.

Write to James Dunnigan at: Dunnigan@Paradigm-TSA.com

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