If biological weapons are such a terror, why haven't terrorists used them?

There are two reasons. First, most biological weapons are difficult to use. With many of them, there is always a chance that the weapon will backfire and kill your own people. While many terrorists are suicidal, few of their leaders are. Second, biological weapons are difficult to make. The ones that are easier to use are even more difficult to manufacture, and apparently only the Russians have those.

Since we have a pretty good idea of what the Russians have (after the Soviet Union fell, people talked) and the Russians need economic assistance from the West, the "designer bugs" are unlikely to get loose. The designer bugs are things like Anthrax strains that are more lethal and easier to set loose. This is the basic thrust of designer bugs; existing diseases genetically (or otherwise) altered to make them deadlier, sturdier and more easily spread around.

But there is one biological agent that does fit the bill without modification. It's smallpox, the most formidable killer of the 20th century. This disease killed some 400 million people in the last hundred years, but was wiped out in 1980. Only two samples remained, one held by the United States, the other by Russia.

But since the Soviet Union fell in 1991, information about their biological weapons program has been leaking out. One report tells of several million doses of smallpox being manufactured and still stored in Russia. Or so the rumor goes.

Smallpox is a very contagious disease that kills some 30 percent of its victims. Most Americans were vaccinated against smallpox, at least until smallpox disappeared in the U. S. and vaccination stopped in 1972. Most of those vaccinated earlier have lost their immunity, meaning some 90 percent of the U. S. population is now vulnerable. One dose of smallpox could infect several hundred people before all those infected were quarantined and treated. The U. S. has a stockpile of 40 million doses of smallpox vaccine, but most doctors and nurses no longer know how to recognize or treat the disease. Moreover, an outbreak of the disease would take its toll on medical personnel before the disease was identified and precautions taken.

One interesting piece of information is missing about the Russian situation. How many doses of vaccine do the Russians have? And could they distribute it given the current sad state of their medical system? It's unlikely that the Russians would use smallpox on anyone, even if they did have vaccine stockpiled. Although the Russians officially deny all of their forbidden (by treaty) biological weapons research, if the stuff exists, so do terrorists with millions of dollars for bribes. The real worry is terrorists getting their hands on a few dozen doses of smallpox virus.

The Russians have been pretty good about guarding their Cold War arsenal of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. This is even more true since the Russians have been battling rebellious Moslem Chechens. Because of that, Russia is now a potential target of Islamic terrorists. However, the economic situation in Russia is dire, and some Moslem terrorist organizations have access to a lot of money. A few million dollar bribes in poverty-stricken Russia could set the pox lose. While America has supplied millions of dollars, and hundreds of technical experts, to help Russia destroy unneeded nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, many remain. It only takes a few Russian technicians or security personnel to weaken and take the money. While smuggling bulky nuclear or chemical weapons is difficult, a few dozen doses of smallpox can be taken out in someone's pockets.

We are that close to the return of smallpox, the greatest killer of the 20th century.

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