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href="../../../webmaster/index.htm" onMouseOver="window.status='';return true"><img src="../../../images/respxclr.gif" border=0 height=65 width=65></a> </td>   <td ALIGN=left VALIGN=> <hr width=95%> <img src="../../../images/respxclr.gif" border=0 height=1 width=3 align=left> <img src="../../../images/respxclr.gif" border=0 height=1 width=3 align=right> <table align=center valign=top border=1 cellspacing=1 cellpadding=10> <tr> <td align=left valign=top> <img src="../../../images/respxclr.gif" border=0 height=1 width=315><br> <center><b><FONT SIZE=+2><font color="#000099"><i>"The Real Palestinian Problem"</i></font></FONT></B></center> <br> <p>Nobody wants the Palestinians, and everybody uses them. The Palestinians are pretty much on their own, as they have been since Israel was created in 1948. At the time, the Palestinians were urged by their leaders to flee while Arab armies cleared out the Jews. The Jews won, and the Palestinian refugees have been in exile ever since. Other Arab nations have generally refused to absorb the Palestinians, preferring to keep them in refugee camps. Arab nations have gone to war with Israel four times over Palestine, and lost. No one wants to try again.</p> <p>Before discussing the Palestinian Problem any further, it's a good idea to remind everyone that the situation in the Middle East is driven by a complex trio of demons. First, there is the 2,300 years of outside rule, beginning with Alexander the Great and his Greek army and ending, in this century, with Western Europeans. All that remains of that outside meddling is Israel, seen as European colonizers, even though much of the population consists of Jewish refugees from other Arab nations.</p> <p>Then there is the fact that nearly all Arab states are run by dictatorships or absolute monarchies, with most of the wealth monopolized by a small percentage of the population and a corrupt bureaucracy. This makes the bulk of the Arab population unhappy with their own, largely unelected leaders.</p> <p>Finally, there is Islamic fundamentalism, which calls for the expulsion of all outsiders and the establishment of honest, and very religious, government. All in all, not the sort of thing to make life easy for current Arab rulers. So invoking the cause of the Palestinians and shouting at Israel is something most Arabs can agree on, even if they can't do much about it.</p> <p>The Palestinians did not take charge of their own fate until after the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, when the PLO (Palestinian Liberation Organization) was created. Setting up shop in Jordan, the PLO didn't get along with their hosts and after some sharp fighting with the Jordanian army in 1970, the PLO was expelled. They went to Lebanon, where the PLO got involved with local politics and played a role in setting off a 15-year civil war in 1975. Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982 and the PLO fled to Syria and Tunisia. The PLO blew it again in 1990 when, after Iraq invaded Kuwait, the PLO backed Iraq. Big mistake. The 400,000 Palestinians working in Kuwait were well paid and the Gulf States were generous contributors to the PLO. The Palestinians were expelled from Kuwait and the financial aid from the Gulf States all but dried up.</p> <p>Despite all these political fumbles, the Palestinians remained the official underdogs and were favored by the United Nations and the media. This despite decades of PLO sponsored (unofficially, for the most part) terrorist operations. The PLO finally gave up on the terrorism, especially when some of the terrorists went after PLO leaders for not being militant enough.</p> <p>The basic problem is that there are still radical factions, with many sympathizers among the Palestinian population. The radicals will settle for nothing less than the destruction of Israel. The Israelis also have their own fanatics who want all Arabs driven from Israel. The big difference is that Israel is a functioning democracy and the Palestinians are not. Israel is better able to keep its wackos under control, while the Palestinians cannot.</p> <p>The last Intifada (popular, largely unarmed, uprising) began in 1987 and went unchecked for five years before running out of steam. The year 2000 Intifada is more violent than the last one, so it may not last as long. Israel controls most utilities and food supplies to Palestinian neighborhoods, but even this might be enough to dissuade the armed radicals among the Palestinians. So far, many Palestinians would be content if Israel withdrew its settlements from the West Bank and Gaza. But to do this, Israel would enrage its own radicals. Similar situation with any deals on the status of Jerusalem. Things could get a lot worse. And not just in Israel.</p> <p>After the Gulf War debacle, and in spite of threats from Palestinian radicals, the PLO began serious negotiations with the Israelis. Some kind of settlement was seen as preferable to more decades of failure. While the Palestinian cause was popular among most Arabs, the leaders of Arab nations had just about had it with the PLO. Many Palestinians realized that time was not on their side, nor were many Arab nations.</p> <p>However, for decades the PLO had preached to its people that they would have it all. At the very least, negotiations with the Israelis would return the entire West Bank (taken in the 1967 war) and part of Jerusalem. But Israeli radicals were just as intent on keeping all of Jerusalem and parts of the West Bank, which were, 2000 years ago, the Israeli heartland. To make matters worse, the PLO is not accustomed to operating as part of a democracy, which is what most Palestinians want.</p> <p>The people in the PLO make up only a small percentage of the Palestinian population and for decades they had billions of dollars a year to work with - from taxes on Palestinians working in the Persian Gulf plus generous aid from those nations. When Israel allowed the PLO to move back to Israel in the 1990s, corruption had already set in. The PLO was always a para-military organization, and quickly was at odds with the millions of Palestinians living in and around Israel. The PLO leadership can't afford to do anything unpopular, like striking a less than perfect (for Palestinians) deal with Israel.</p> <p>So there it festers. The irresistible force (PLO promises to the Palestinians) meets the immovable object (Israeli politics making it impossible to give everything the PLO has promised to get.) This is the real Palestinian Problem.</P> <hr width=95%> <div align=right><FONT SIZE=-1>Copyright-James F. Dunnigan-2000</FONT> </div> <hr width=95%> <center><FONT SIZE=-1>"Dirty Little Secrets" is syndicated by:<br></FONT> <a href="http://www.Paradigm-TSA.com"><IMG SRC="../../../images/box_2c.jpeg" border=0 hspace=0 height=30 width=35><IMG SRC="../../../images/ptsa2.jpeg" border=0 hspace=0 height=30 width=144></a></center> <hr width=95%> </td></tr></table> </td>   <td ALIGN=left VALIGN=top width=165> <hr width=95%> <IMG SRC="../../../images/respxclr.gif" border=0 height=1085 width=3 align=left> <center><font color="black"><b><font size=4>"Dirty Little Secrets"</font></b><br> by James F. Dunnigan</font> <br> <IMG SRC="../../../images/dunnigan.gif" border=0 ALT="Jim Dunnigan"></center> <br> <hr> <br> <FONT SIZE=-1> James F Dunnigan works as an advisor and lecturer to the Army War College, State Department, National Defense University, Naval Post Graduate School, CIA, and MORS. <br> He is the author of over one hundred historical simulations and fifteen books, including the modern military classic "How to Make War," which has been current and in print for 16 years selling over half a million copies. <br> He serves as a military analyst for NBC and MSNBC, and he also appears frequently as a military affairs commentator for ABC, CBS and CNN as he did throughout the Persian Gulf War. <br> Mr. Dunnigan served in the U.S. Army from 1961 to 1964, and is a graduate of Columbia University. </FONT> <br><br> <hr> <br> <center><IMG SRC="../../../images/jdmsnbc.gif" border=0 ALT="Jim Dunnigan @ MSNBC" width=270></center> <br> <hr> <br> <center>Write to James Dunnigan at: <A HREF="mailto:Dunnigan@Paradigm-TSA.com"> Dunnigan@Paradigm-TSA.com</A></center> <br> <hr> <br> <center><FONT SIZE=+2><A HREF="dunindex.htm">"Dirty Little Secrets" Archives</A></FONT></center> <br><br> <hr> </td> </tr> </TABLE> </CENTER> </BODY> </HTML>