The Taliban armed forces are a shaky coalition of true believers (about 10,000), foreign volunteers (some 20,000), unreliable warlords (another 10,000) and reluctant draftees (up to 20,000). Many of the Taliban troops, especially those led by the warlords, are switching sides, and the draftees sneak away at the first chance.

The most reliable troops aren't even Afghans, but the foreigners. Most of these are Pakistanis, largely religious students eager to support the fundamentalist beliefs of the Taliban. The Pakistanis are also largely Pushtun, as is the largest minority in Afghanistan. Most of the Taliban are Pushtun as well. The Pakistanis are not as tough as the Afghans, most having grown up in refugee camps and religious schools. Many are becoming demoralized, especially as winter approaches.

By far the most determined fighters are the non-Pakistani foreign volunteers, some 5,000-7,000, that work for bin Laden. These have always been the shock troops of the Taliban army and were used to insure that the Taliban would never surrender bin Laden. Most of the bodyguards for the Taliban leaders are bin Laden followers.

Most of the bin Laden troops have gone through the terrorist training camps and serve in the bin Laden infantry brigades to finish their training and prove their dedication to the cause. The leaders of these troops are often experienced terrorists wanted for criminal acts in their home countries. They are in Afghanistan because it's safer than risking jail or execution back home. The bin Laden brigades will not, like the Afghan units, be open to negotiation and surrender. The bin Laden troops will likely fight to the last man. Having no place to run, they have no other option.

The bin Laden brigades (one or two thousand men each) have done most of the heavy fighting for the Taliban over the last few years. And as long as the Taliban looks as if it is keeping up a resistance, the bin Laden brigades will probably still be made available to stiffen Taliban resistance. What is slowing this down is American attacks on Taliban fuel supplies. The borders of Iran and Pakistan are closed, meaning the only gasoline getting into Afghanistan is slowly smuggled in cross-country away from the main border crossings. Taliban fuel is no doubt being dispersed, but it is also being used as the Taliban have to burn it to move troops and supplies to oppose the advancing Northern Alliance troops. When the fuel gets short, the bin Laden brigades probably will be the last ones to run out of gas. Even the Afghans respect "the Arabs" (as the bin Laden troops are called) and are not eager to fight with them over a few gallons of gas.

American intelligence gathering and reconnaissance efforts are eager to locate the bin Laden brigades. As the Afghan units are defeated, surrender or switch sides to the Northern Alliance, the bin Laden brigades will seek to fall back and defend Osama bin Laden himself. The final battle will be bloody, unless commandos snatch bin Laden first. While American troops will have access to support from bombers, bin Laden's final defense may be in an area heavily populated with civilians. Bin Laden knows that Americans cannot risk a lot of dead civilians, and we will be forced to send in infantry to root him out. The many dead American troops will be seen by bin Laden fans as a "victory" even if bin Laden is killed.

An even scarier variant on this is bin Laden sneaking across the border into Pakistan. If anything, bin Laden has more support in northern Pakistan than he does in Afghanistan. Although the $25 million reward on his head (and smaller ones on his key aides) makes this a more dangerous place to be, it also provides an interesting setting for Osama's last stand. The Pakistanis would have to root him out and this could get pretty bloody and politically complicated. As always, most of bin Laden's aides have no place to go and would likely fight to the end.

You'll be hearing more about the bin Laden brigades eventually, and the news won't be pleasant.

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